In theory, yes... The crash came in 11929, the worst year of the Depression was 1938... by 1943, the American economy had, however, turned round because of the war... There were three major phases to the New Deal - none of them, in fact, had much impact on the fundamental economic outlook. It is much the same story with the recession of 1870... because, integral to the Kondratiev Cycle is that the bottom of the wave is habitually, but not obligatorily, mitigated by the economic circumstances of war, which serve as an artificial stimulus to economic growth. The depression of the 1870s-1880s was, in fact, of longer duration and was more severe - more resembling our present circumstances than the Great Depression - because there was no war. Now, two wars tend to intervene - one at the top of the wave, one at the bottom and are, roughly, 20 to 25 years apart, and, significantly, their economic significance is in the innovation of some new form of communications - which speed up both international and internal and domestic infrastructures - which manifest in physical as well as notional displacement. (Look at the progressive introduction of: the internet, the jet engine, flight, the internal combustion engine, the telephone, the telegraph, the railways, the canals - in a systematic...
In theory, yes... The crash came in 11929, the worst year of the Depression was 1938... by 1943, the American economy had, however, turned round because of the war... There were three major phases to the New Deal - none of them, in fact, had much impact on the fundamental economic outlook. It is much the same story with the recession of 1870... because, integral to the Kondratiev Cycle is that the bottom of the wave is habitually, but not obligatorily, mitigated by the economic circumstances of war, which serve as an artificial stimulus to economic growth. The depression of the 1870s-1880s was, in fact, of longer duration and was more severe - more resembling our present circumstances than the Great Depression - because there was no war. Now, two wars tend to intervene - one at the top of the wave, one at the bottom and are, roughly, 20 to 25 years apart, and, significantly, their economic significance is in the innovation of some new form of communications - which speed up both international and internal and domestic infrastructures - which manifest in physical as well as notional displacement. (Look at the progressive introduction of: the internet, the jet engine, flight, the internal combustion engine, the telephone, the telegraph, the railways, the canals - in a systematic generational introduction going back to the introduction of the printing press - which, in itself, ushers in the Reformation, the process that removes the Church as the centre of economic performance and gives birth to capitalism and market forces...)
On top of Kondratiev's 60-year boom-bust-war cycle and its attendant leaps in technological communications advances, there is the additional - and for us, pivotal - centennial cycle which, crucially, does not fall on the calendar date of the start of a new century, but revolves around the events of the first five years of the second decade of a century. It is a pattern worth noting: the Great War commencing in 1914 and which lays the conditions at its *** in the Treaty of Versailles for the next one hundred years to date... preceded by the Battle of Waterloo in 1815 and the ensuing Conference of Vienna, which did likewise, giving birth the conditions which produced the Great War... This, too, is a cycle that goes back well beyond the Reformation - although it seems that Martin Luther, nailing his 95-Theses to of the Castle Church of Wittenberg was a little late on his marks, although Erasmus's Greek New Testament was printed in 1514 - so much so that it was a pattern already well established and noteworthy to Enguerrand de Marigny, the French chamberlain and minister of Philip IV the Fair of France in 1315, upon Philip's dissolution of the Sovereign Order of the Knights Templar in 1314, which confiscated their wealth as effective financiers of Christendom and changed forever the economic infrastructure of the entirety of post-Crusade Europe.
We thus fall, with seemingly inerrant precision, into both cycles... a world, economically, requiring the stimulus of a new means of communication following the 25-year establishment of the internet... in a cyclical depression... and in conjunction with the final breakdown of the terms of the Treaty of Versailles, which, notably, is not affecting Europe so much as those countries in the Middle East which were created by it out of the remains of the Ottoman Empire. And it is the decisions being made today which will determine whether war will be local or global... The answer to that last conundrum is that outside the cyclical pattern established in Christendom-Europe - of which the USA and the Anglosphere are but historical adjuncts - there is also the established pattern of the roughly 300-yearly cycle of Islamic recrudescence, last seen in the so-called Second Jihad of the late 17th century and its arrest at the Gates of Vienna in 1683 and which, since 1918 has slowly over the last century gradually gained dynamism to become the Third Jihad.
The answer to your question seems, thus, on historical inevitability, to be, Yes, unless some very wise decisions are made in the next year, we are on the cusp of a global conflict which will be a veritable clash of civilizations not seen since, perhaps, the armies of Mohammed's Caliphate stormed out of the Arabian Peninsula in the mid-7th century.
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